写作

NotebookLM 级来源

钉自终端研究页 / featured 源。在 dseek.ai/terminal?tab=research 打开。

• 半导体霸权 2029：ASML、台积电与 Terafab 拐点

  Three dated protections — memory price floors, TSMC's Low-NA runway, and ASML's uncontested light source — all approach expiry around 2029, the same year the Terafab/xLight challenger stack targets maturity. Until then incumbents keep pricing power; the trade is watching whether the challengers' milestones hold, because each one is dated and checkable while the narrative is neither.

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• AI 软件链：模态经济学

  The pricing unit decides fate (seat loses, usage gains, outcome wins), modality decides unit economics (text deflation does not rescue per-second video), and in generative modalities legal usability now outprices quality.

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• AI 硬件全链：约束迁移，钱跟着约束走

  Excess profit in the AI hardware chain always piles up on whichever pipe is narrowest right now — and that pipe moves every 6 to 12 months, which in 2026 puts it at grid power rather than anything made of silicon.

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• 香港豪华 MPV：护城河已迁移

  The Alphard’s moat was Hong Kong’s tax-and-scarcity structure, not the vehicle — and the binding constraint has migrated from acquisition tax to charging capacity and residual-value discovery.

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